Gusty winds will be the main weather event late tonight into the day on Thursday. However, by mid day the main weather event will shift to the approaching squall line that is forecasted to move through the area. Starting near the MS river early morning and exiting east MS by 5-6pm.
First of all, we have basically 2 area of low pressures- one currently bringing both severe weather in Lousiana and Texas and blizzard conditions to much of the midwest where NUMEROUS winter storm warnings are in place, the other is in SW Texas. This area of low pressure in Kansas, based on latest future ayalysis, will continue off to the northeast and the low pressure in central Texas will drag off to the Northeast (and strengthen) and sweep a quite powerful cold front through the area (before lifting out and becoming a quite strong one for people north of us). This low pressure will in return lift a warm front from SW to NE to generally along and SW of Meridian to Greenwood. With strong wind shear (SSE 40kts-50 at 925mb, SSW 50-60kts at 700mb, 50-60kts at 500mb) in the atmosphere in place along with the approaching cold front and available moisture, then a squall line should form. Latest 00z GFS model run shows the best moisture will be in place for areas along and southwest of Meridian to Greenwood MS (60-65 Dew Points). Latest NWS outlook, that was updated a few hours before the newest model run, basically shows the greatest severe weather threat over West Central MS to SW Miss into southern MS. Pretty much the same area as the latest GFS points too. I will paste below the latest thinking from the National Weather Service. Also one more thing, as mentioned above, we have strong SSE winds above the surface with SSW to SW winds aloft, this gives us the chance for some tornadoes. A squall line a lot of times will just have SSW to W winds, but with those added lower level SSE winds- that adds the tornado threat. Also adds that to any storms that may form ahead of the line.
According to the NWS, the estimated time line for teh squall line is for it to be in central MS (around I-55/ Jackson) by mid-day to about 1pm. Shifting to East MS between 3 and 6pm, this map above showing around 5pm. This is only a forecasted guess as the all models are somewhat different timing. The newest GFS model run (00z) shows about the same. But just a side fact that I, myself, want to throw in is seems storms always ariive ahead of what is forecasted, so just keep that in mind just in case.
The main threat will be damaging winds along with the threat for isolated tornadoes (better threat in areas with best moisture). Heavy rain, along with flooding, is also a possibliy as they have already put out a Flash Flood Watch for all of the Jackson warning area (central MS/ NE Louisiana/Extreme SE Arkansas— the watch does include Lauderdale, Newton, Jasper, Clarke, Neshoba, and Kemper County). Pretty much, west of I-55 will be in the target for the first half of the day. That will shift to east of I-55 and leave East MS in the target late day.
Aside from the thunderstorm threat, we have a threat for gusty winds. As with any low pressure system, the air within and surrounding lifts so air has to replace it. This low is quite powerful, so the winds will be gusty out of the SE and gradually swift through the day as the low moves east (staying north of us). Winds is forecasted to be between 15 to 25mph with gust reaching in the 30’s. those could become higher as the low moves really close and the squall nears.
Do remember, I have a weather radio re-broadcast going (Weather Radio Broadcast). Just a side caution, it’s best to have your own NOAA Weather Radio so if for some reason you was depending on this broadcast and the power here at my house was to go out, then the re-broadcast will end. However, if you have no radio or no plans to have one, then use it. I’ll try to keep it going- based on past storms the chances the re-broadcast going down is low. Also, if in the local area, keep an eye on WTOK or listen to 97.1 WOKK (they are the best weather coverage over the radio for the Meridian area.) Yes, you might to endure the country music, but I ensure you the severe weather coverage is good.
I will have another update late tonight, if not, then I will have one out tomorrow and try my best as keeping this updated. If the squall looks REALLY good, then I will direct you to the weather radio broadcast as I, myself, will be out facing the squall in person.
Questions or Comments- Post below!
